Category Archives: Environment

My version of the future

Posted by on September 18, 2011 2 comments

Well, I do need to post more often than monthly don’t I?  It’s been a busy few weeks and mental energy has been slowly flowing back after a few changes.  Hopefully this will mean more to say on my part and also bring forward some planned changes to my SitQuietly software.

I was thinking of commenting on the unfolding situation in Greece, the Greek parliament is in emergency session tonight and the stakes are high. But there is nothing to add, nothing further to say.  Sometimes all you can do is watch silently, I’ve said everything I have to say on this.

I want to go a different way tonight, a way that cleaves (I hope) nearer to the middle path.  A lot has been said about energy in the last couple of years.  The oncoming peak in our civilisation’s available net energy supply (also known as “Peak Oil”) has been playing in the background of the current clutch of crises like a pianist in a dingy backstreet bar.  The common scenario seems to be that we return to a pre-industrial existence, almost like the wild west but with a little electricity and a few lightbulbs along the way.  Set against this is the hope that some sort of “Star Trek” style technology will save us and let us carry on as before.  To be frank, I think both viewpoints are a little overplayed.  So I’ll stick my neck out and say what I see, everyone else seems to be doing it, so I’ll jump in as the water seems to be fine.  This is a general flavour of the direction my thoughts are running in.

So, what do I see?  Change for sure, we can’t go on as we are, that much is certain.  But I see a different future, industrial society and high technology are still here, but they look very different.  I see technology being more expensive, scarcer, and not disposable any more. We will have to repair, to mend and make do more.  More things will be done manually, private cars will be scarcer, cities walkable and public transport will be forced to improve.

Industry will still be here.  We will still be able to smelt metals, produce solar cells and silicon chips.  We have the beginnings already, solar furnaces can produce solar cells and silicon chips of superior quality to our current ones[1].  Part of the changes I see is the migration of these sort of industries to hot equatorial countries to take better advantage of the stronger sun.

Of course, energy will be an issue and energy efficiency will be the name of the game. As I said above, the power use of labour saving devices will be a no-no so we will return to doing a fair few things by hand.  No tumble drier or dishwasher, and the electric mixer will likely be replaced  by a hand whisk!  Newer technologies are emerging that allow power to be drawn from our movements, there are wearable solar cells, kinetic chargers and hand or foot cranked chargers for devices[2,3,4]; this could be a lot more common.  In addition, we will make more use of walking and cycling.  The huge supplies of fossil fuels that power our cars and planes will not be anything like as available, and the alternatives don’t have anything like the juice to fit the bill; at least not until we eventually get fusion online.  I’m not holding my breath for that one, in case you hadn’t guessed.  I can see the biodiesels and power dense liquid fuels being used in construction machinery and other applications that need that sort of horsepower.  Our power needs will be met by a diverse range of technologies; solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, nuclear and no doubt others.  Let me be clear, there is no single magic bullet, how you are powered will likely depend very much on where you are and what you are doing.

Raw materials will likely be recycled, or mined from landfill [5].  Given that our cars and many aircraft will be largely redundant by this time, recycling them will free up a significant amount of raw materials.  I do have more to say on this subject, but am out of time for now.  I’ll try not to leave it so long next time!

References

[1] – The Bright Future of Solar Powered Factories.

[2] – Engineers Create First Motion Powered Nano Device.

[3] – 15 cellphone chargers that harness kinetic energy for a clean recharge.

[4] – Freeplay Energy. See FreeCharge 12v and Clamp Charger, but all products are good examples.

[5] – Landfill mining (Wikipedia).

Growth fixation

Posted by on January 25, 2011 4 comments

I’ve been watching the news in the last day or so with a sense of foreboding.

It seems our economy has missed its growth target, cue various politicians and media pundits talking earnestly about growth.  This is the mantra that has underscored the last few decades, and I recommend Annie Leonard’s “The Story of Stuff” if you want a little background to our fixations with growth and consumerism.  It’s 20 minutes long, and I highly recommend it.

There is a lot of talk of getting back to growth and not much mind room being given to the question “What if we can’t?”  I’ve talked about this before, but let’s make one statement: “Within a finite system, infinite growth is not possible.  Sooner or later, you will hit the edges of the system and stop”.  That’s not politics, it’s not economics, it’s basic unalterable mathematical fact.  We have finite space and resources on Earth, and we have to make do with what we have.  We must live within our means.

Given that the rest of the world is growing, what happens then?  Well, we in the west will inevitably see a lowering of our living standards.  Though that’s a very negative way of looking at things, it is maybe fairer to say that living standards will begin to balance out globally.

This isn’t optional long term, and will not only mean less plastic junk to buy and fewer expensive luxuries.  It will mean a return to mending and making do, we might even see the return of television repair shops, we certainly won’t be throwing the old sets away!  Speaking as someone who is refurbishing an old laptop and installing Debian Linux, rather than buying a new one, this sort of thing is deeply satisfying to do!

This will, ultimately, see the dawn of the Steady State Economy, I can’t see much of an alternative no matter how much I look.

One final thought that occurs to me comes from a time when I expressed the above opinions in a forum.  I was quickly met with the comment “It’s funny how everyone wants to force people to do things”.  I feel I should preemptively clear up a possible misunderstanding here.  The above isn’t about what anyone “wants”, we can argue and protest; shout and rage; scream and fume; reality simply is.  You can’t beat the maths, but if accepted in good grace, things could still be pretty good.

Energy or lack thereof

Posted by on September 16, 2010 1 comment

One of the big demons facing us is the threat of “Peak Oil”.  Of course, this would be better stated as “Peak Net Energy”.  Put simply it means that our society will require more energy to run then we can get from our increasingly stretched reserves.

There are arguments to and fro on this, but some very serious people and organisations on both sides of the Atlantic are starting to take it very seriously.   My view is that it’s not all doom and gloom and predications of our collective demise are somewhat over egged.

There are number of new techs coming forward, refinements are being made in wave power and further to this newer designs of wind turbine are ever more interesting.  There is even a prototype for a high altitude kite generator which is seemingly quite promising.  Only this month, a team of scientists unveiled a method of using carbon nano tubes to greatly increase the effectiveness of solar cells.

Of course all of this is great, but the fly in the ointment is transport, we simply can’t build enough electric cars for everyone, though I do think that some such vehicles (e.g. light goods) are going to be present.  I believe that the solution to this comes back to walkable cities and effective metro and intercity rail systems, designing cities for the non commercial motor car simply won’t do anymore, the age of the personal car is entering it’s twilight years.  Some cities here in the UK are starting to get it, I hope this is the beginning of a trend and that we can keep the momentum going.