Tag Archives: future

Looking back at 2011

Posted by on January 1, 2012 No comments

Well, this has been an interesting year, in some senses I’m glad it’s over.  I also feel a sense of some foreboding about next year.  Maybe it’s the darkening nights, the shadows lengthen and grow…

This year saw us take another hit in the financial system, in truth the problems never went away, just glossed over with loads of printed money.  Of course, you can’t keep doing that; as a very wise man said “Ye cannae change the laws of physics!”  How very true, we are about to find this out.

We’ve seen the whole software patents story take turn after turn.  Apple vs Samsung, then Apple vs HTC.  I can’t shake the feeling that Apple might just have entered an arse kicking contest with a Centipede here, but time will tell.  But the interesting one could be Barnes and Noble vs Microsoft, this seems to be a far more interesting story as B&N take aim not at the patents but at the strategy of using them.  Clever, and also something that could be very disruptive.  We have the SOPA act still being fought in the US, this could easily wreck the Internet as we know it and the potential effect of freedom of speech and fair use is chilling.  A short video here explains things.

Finally, the Occupy movement.  This has been fascinating to watch, and eye opening.  In fact, just as bemusingly, the suicidegirls.com twitter feed turned out to have better US coverage than the mainstream media!  Outdone by a softcore porn site, hang your heads sirs, hang your heads. I except Al Jazeera and Russia Today from this, I consistently find some very good stuff on both those sites  Occupy has started to show the hypocrisy at the heart of some quarters of the Western establishment, tactics were used on American and UK citizens that were not in keeping with anyone’s idea of the response of a democracy.  Though the fact that it had to come to this speaks volumes.

For 2012?  Well, I’m not much with the old crystal ball.  But, I’ll give it a whirl.  I see us living more within our means, this won’t be such a bad thing as the alternative simply stores up more trouble.  Better to start now.  I can see the software patent system coming into disrepute very quickly, and I suspect that the tech landscape could look a bit different this time next year.  The patent war is to the death, and I wonder about how the current hegemonies will hold up.  For freedom of speech and SOPA, I recommend paying the Electronic Frontier Foundation (or EFF) a visit and doing some reading to see what can be done.  The internet is not taking this lying down however, and I think that the industry lobbyists and their pet politicians are going have more of a fight on their hands than they realise.

Occupy.. I can see more trouble on the horizon. Especially in the USA, the controversial Detainee Bill promises more grief for the occupiers.  I honestly can’t understand how Barack Obama let this one past him, I can only hope someone comes to their senses while there are still any freedoms left worth defending in America.

Putting away the Bear suit

Posted by on November 12, 2011 No comments

Well, it’s been an interesting week.  We’ve had the ongoing story of the occupy protests, which are being very well covered in alternative media.  I recommend monitoring Twitter for this sort of news, you tend to get things that the mainstream media either omit or are simply slow with.

In addition to this we’ve had the drama in Greece and Italy, it could be said that both countries have had their democratic governments undermined by EU interference and I can’t see that ending well.  President Sarkozky was challenged on this by a reporter from the BBC and didn’t give anything like a satisfactory answer.  I think that there is a definite moral hazard involved here, never mind the fact that the Euro is probably beyond saving in its current form.  It’s taken the political class till now to realise what the markets have known all along, as Mark Twain famously said “Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt”.

So in light of all of the above it’s easy to get very bearish in sentiment.  The easiest way to counter this sentiment is not to take it too seriously, I have a running joke with a friend that I’m “putting on my bear suit” whenever I read that sort of content.  But too much of it really does taint the mind and as a Buddhist I have to be mindful and observe my own thought processes.

This is where our mindfulness meditation comes in, I’ve found that the effect of this practise spills over into everyday life.  You become more able to observe your thought processes and to catch yourself thinking things, or taking a partial view.  Through this, I’ve come to realise that things aren’t as bad as they might seem at first glance.

Yes, we face challenges, but there are no doubt opportunities in these times.  I hold the hope that the coming threats to the banking system will see the rise of a new culture of mutuals and credit unions, something to return some of the financial power to our communities.  I see the threats to the notion of globalism as an opportunity to localise, to use our local shops and services.  So this isn’t a disaster, just another chapter in our story, and depending on your point of view it might not be that much of a disaster after all.

I may even have to pack away my bear suit!

My version of the future

Posted by on September 18, 2011 2 comments

Well, I do need to post more often than monthly don’t I?  It’s been a busy few weeks and mental energy has been slowly flowing back after a few changes.  Hopefully this will mean more to say on my part and also bring forward some planned changes to my SitQuietly software.

I was thinking of commenting on the unfolding situation in Greece, the Greek parliament is in emergency session tonight and the stakes are high. But there is nothing to add, nothing further to say.  Sometimes all you can do is watch silently, I’ve said everything I have to say on this.

I want to go a different way tonight, a way that cleaves (I hope) nearer to the middle path.  A lot has been said about energy in the last couple of years.  The oncoming peak in our civilisation’s available net energy supply (also known as “Peak Oil”) has been playing in the background of the current clutch of crises like a pianist in a dingy backstreet bar.  The common scenario seems to be that we return to a pre-industrial existence, almost like the wild west but with a little electricity and a few lightbulbs along the way.  Set against this is the hope that some sort of “Star Trek” style technology will save us and let us carry on as before.  To be frank, I think both viewpoints are a little overplayed.  So I’ll stick my neck out and say what I see, everyone else seems to be doing it, so I’ll jump in as the water seems to be fine.  This is a general flavour of the direction my thoughts are running in.

So, what do I see?  Change for sure, we can’t go on as we are, that much is certain.  But I see a different future, industrial society and high technology are still here, but they look very different.  I see technology being more expensive, scarcer, and not disposable any more. We will have to repair, to mend and make do more.  More things will be done manually, private cars will be scarcer, cities walkable and public transport will be forced to improve.

Industry will still be here.  We will still be able to smelt metals, produce solar cells and silicon chips.  We have the beginnings already, solar furnaces can produce solar cells and silicon chips of superior quality to our current ones[1].  Part of the changes I see is the migration of these sort of industries to hot equatorial countries to take better advantage of the stronger sun.

Of course, energy will be an issue and energy efficiency will be the name of the game. As I said above, the power use of labour saving devices will be a no-no so we will return to doing a fair few things by hand.  No tumble drier or dishwasher, and the electric mixer will likely be replaced  by a hand whisk!  Newer technologies are emerging that allow power to be drawn from our movements, there are wearable solar cells, kinetic chargers and hand or foot cranked chargers for devices[2,3,4]; this could be a lot more common.  In addition, we will make more use of walking and cycling.  The huge supplies of fossil fuels that power our cars and planes will not be anything like as available, and the alternatives don’t have anything like the juice to fit the bill; at least not until we eventually get fusion online.  I’m not holding my breath for that one, in case you hadn’t guessed.  I can see the biodiesels and power dense liquid fuels being used in construction machinery and other applications that need that sort of horsepower.  Our power needs will be met by a diverse range of technologies; solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, nuclear and no doubt others.  Let me be clear, there is no single magic bullet, how you are powered will likely depend very much on where you are and what you are doing.

Raw materials will likely be recycled, or mined from landfill [5].  Given that our cars and many aircraft will be largely redundant by this time, recycling them will free up a significant amount of raw materials.  I do have more to say on this subject, but am out of time for now.  I’ll try not to leave it so long next time!

References

[1] – The Bright Future of Solar Powered Factories.

[2] – Engineers Create First Motion Powered Nano Device.

[3] – 15 cellphone chargers that harness kinetic energy for a clean recharge.

[4] – Freeplay Energy. See FreeCharge 12v and Clamp Charger, but all products are good examples.

[5] – Landfill mining (Wikipedia).

Social networks.

Posted by on November 30, 2007 2 comments

I was reading an interesting article by Cory Doctorow and as I know a few folks on Facebook and other such sites, I thought I’d link to the article here.

It’s an interesting read and I have to say I can certainly see his point, though he doesn’t cover the use of Facebook and other social sites for spamming.  I know I had to deal with spam friend requests on MySpace, and I expect to have to do the same with Facebook in the fullness of time.

It makes you question, as I have been, the exact amount of quality Facebook adds to a persons experience in cyberspace.